2nd position opened on the failure to break the 1hr 50SMA @ 211.50.
Entry @ 211.40
TP OPEN
SL 212.20 (Just above the Weekly Pivot)
Monday, June 30, 2008
2nd SHORT position added
It's all about the Oil...
"Normal" equity / currency correlation has been all but forgotten these past few weeks as Oil continues to push new highs. In "normal" markets our beloved pound yen cross normally follows major equity markets, sometimes almost to the pip; If the DOW has a bull run, the GJ pops a few hundred pips, if the Nikkei rallies, so does the GeeJay, and so on. The basic idea behind this correlation is that if stocks are on the rise investors pull from their cash reserves to invest, thus "selling" their cold hard cash in order to buy stock. The opposite is true in a bear market, however this correlation has been put on ice due to the huge world wide concern over rising oil prices.
There are many possibilities as to why a higher oil price effects the FX market; one, commodity buying; the price of oil has risen so quickly that many investors are pulling money out of equities and diversifying into commodities, which causes a bear run on the equity markets. Two, fear; those investors that are holding stocks yet see commodities as a risky adventure are either standing aside and loosing money, short selling the market, or simply throwing in the towel. All of these actions have a negative impact on the equity markets. Three, capitulation; some investors think this has already begun and some, myself included, think it is just around the corner. Capitulation is when a market bottoms and investors flock in to pick up bargains, think midnight madness sale. When this happens a bear market can suddenly turn bullish, however because a lot of new money is being pumped into the market the large equity rallies can actually throw a countries currency into a downward spiral.
All in all, trading the FX market over the past few weeks has been very interesting. The overall lesson is that no matter what you read or hear follow your charts, they, unlike most media and governmental addresses, don't lie.
GJ SHORT (New Trade)
SHORTING "The Temptress" (GJ) @ 211.00 after a rejection from 2 key fib levels at the 211.15 area.
TP OPEN
SL 211.90 (Just above the DP @ 211.74)
GJ SHORT taken and closed
We took a SHORT position at 211.75 and just closed it for 200 pips. I was unable to login to blogger since last Friday morning which is the reason this was not posted, and for those people thinking something fishy is going on, here is a screen shot of the actual trade taken from our mirrored account at FXCM;
On a break of 209.34, the daily s2, we will go short again with 208.60 as our TP...
Stay tuned...
Thursday, June 26, 2008
GJ LONG CLOSED
*Late Posting*
I had a power outage in my office here in Cancun due to a quick but very violent little tropical storm that passed through. A closed signal was sent via skype from my mobile phone for all those clients who have requested to be included in my contact list.
CLOSED @ 213.80 after the rejection from the Daily 200EMA @ approx. 214.00/05
+55 pips
More pips to come....
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Call me crazy, but...
New SHORT position added @ 213.00
SL 213.60
TP 210.70ish
Regardless of the outcome after news at 2:15PM EDT I don't see The Temptress heading much higher without a corrective retreat to at least the swing low in the 210.70 area.
Stay tuned....
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
GJ LONG Closed
GJ LONG Closed @ 212.85 for 25 pips profit as the market is in whip saw mode after the negative US news.
I will wait for Asia to re-enter the market.
Raise your hand if you are a Confident Consumer...
What, no hands?
Yet another piece of bad economic news out of the US this morning, with consumer confidence numbers falling to 16 year lows. I guess $5 a gallon gasoline can put a damper on anyone's pocket.
The news sent the dollar in a quick free fall versus most majors including the dollar yen which pushed our beloved GJ, a.k.a. The Temptress, down to test the daily pivot. I am not canceling our LONG limit order as of yet, however if we see a 30 min close below 211.65 I will be going SHORT.
Stay tuned....
Finger on the trigger...
After a nice bounce the the Daily R2 we are now slowly moving back up. Price currently is sitting on the Daily R1 and the 1HR and 4HR Momentums are bullish.
I will re-enter the market LONG on a 30min close above 212.58 with my TP @ 213.80 and my SL @ 211.88.
Profit Booked on GJ LONGS
Our TP was hit on our GJ LONG from yesterday at 212.40 for a 70 pip gain.
I am still SHORT biased for the week but I believe we will revisit the swing high from last week at or around the 213.50 area before we make our decent.
New trade in London, stay tuned.
Monday, June 23, 2008
Put on a pair of pants would ya!!
Going LONG on the GJ @ 211.70
Get those pants on but pack a pair of shorts....just in case.
TP 212.40
SL 210.70
If we fail to break the 212.50 area I will be shorting from there, if it is broken we will reload long up to 213. Weekly momentum is very bearish, and it hasn't been in quite some time so keep those shorts handy.
Friday, June 20, 2008
Anyone have any extra closet space?
I am putting away my SHORTS as I feel a slight breeze in the air and don't feel comfortable leaving them on over the weekend.
All 3 positions CLOSED @ 210.80
More pips to come...
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Bermudas, Swim trunks, knickers,....
Adding another position SHORT on GJ a.k.a. "The Temptress" at 213.00 as the new daily momentums are EXTREMELY bearish.
I am looking for 211 by NY, see you there...
Help Wanted (Sorry the position has been filled)
With the positive jobless claim news out of the US this AM I have temp. lifted my SL on our GJ SHORTS. I don't expect to see anything higher than 213.50 however I will post any changes.
Call me crazy but I am not a long pants type of guy....
New SHORTS opened @ 212.30
Our TP is OPEN at this point with an SL above the Daily R3 @ 212.95
This position may be open a few days but has a good risk to reward ratio, currently I have 2 open positions and may add more if I see some lower tops turning into resistance. The Temptress is WAY over bought and the news spike didn't help matters. I am looking for a retest of yesterday's lows around the 210.30 region.
I will cover these shorts if we see bounces from any major MA's, FIBS, or previous support/resistance levels.
More pips to come....
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
My legs are starting to get cold....
....but we are STILL in our SHORTS from Monday.
On a clean break of 210.80, meaning a 30 minute candle close below this level, I will be opening another position SHORT on "The Temptress" (GBPJPY) with an SL @ 211.80 and a TP set at 208.80.
More pips to come...
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Extra, extra, read all about it....GJ UPDATE
We will reverse our positions on a 30 min candle close above the daily pivot @ 211.50, TP 212.20 just below the Daily R1, SL at 210.70.
I will be looking to resell in London and if the DP is not broken we will hold the current shorts for a TP near 209.00.
From today forward I will refer to the GJ as "The Temptress", I saw this nickname somewhere on the web and it fits the pair formally known as "The Beast" perfectly.
More pips to come....
Monday, June 16, 2008
Closed and Reversed
GJ Longs Closed and Reversed @ 212.60
Lots of resistance around this area. We still may see 213.00 by NY close but a corrective move down to the 211/210.70 area looks in order before any further northern progression.
Saturday, June 14, 2008
Still trapped....
The Beast failed to escape of Friday, but did test the strength of her cage's ceiling before the close of the NY session.
We are still waiting for a definite break one way or another and hopefully we will see one after the G8 conference this weekend. We did see 210.50 broken but each and every candle on almost every TF was either a spinning top or a doji showing that for yet another day the market was indecisive.
More pips to come.....
Thursday, June 12, 2008
The caged beast is getting restless...
The beast (a commonly used "pet" name for the Pound Yen cross) has been locked in a very snug cage the past 70 hours or so. The longer she is caged the farther she's going to run when the door is finally pried open. Her buddy DOW has been running free the past few sessions, and normally She's right there with him, in fact she normally runs circles around him. For the past 3 days while Mr. DOW has been training for a southern marathon The Beast hasn't even broken a sweat.
We have the G8 conference over the weekend and perhaps The Beast is waiting to hear a few choice words from a few choice world leaders before she decides where she wants to go. Price action tells me there seems to be a bearish bias at this point and if this range continues through Friday's close we most likely will see a gap down on Monday.
Hopefully someone will slip the key under the cage door this afternoon so we can make some pips.....
"Home on the RANGE, where the Pound and the Yen-o-lope play..."
Sooooo corny, I apologise, but this 90 pip range we have been locked in for the past 24 hours has me going loony.
I am looking for a break and a close (5 or 15 min candle) either below 209.45 or above 210.50. Once that happens we can stop singing the beloved state song of Kansas and start making some pips.
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Autotrading Options; Anyone have an Aspirin?
In an attempt to find a good option for those clients who don't have the minimum to open a managed account directly with us at FX Hoy, I have been looking into some "Auto Trade" Systems. These web sites allow clients to open an account with a given broker, usually FXCM, and then choose from a list of signal providers. Once they have chosen their providers they can then set parameters on their accounts as to how many lots are traded, risk percentage, etc. The idea is a great one, however finding a solid and easy to use interface is NOT.
Zulutrade ; I had high hopes for this web site. I was actually directed their by my Institutional Sales Representative from FXCM. Since I started to use the signal provider interface I have encountered problems. One of the worst issues is that at certain times my open positions would disappear. In accordance with Murphy's Law this normally happened when I wanted to close positions due to trend reversal or some upcoming news event. I have had email conversations with support and have been told this and other issues, including the erroneous calculations of pip count and max draw down displayed on providers public profiles, where common issues and where being worked on. I plan on waiting to hear back that there issues are resolved before I continue to use this platform.
Collective2 ; A very complicated web site dedicated mostly to stock and options traders. There are a few FX providers but they only account for a small percentage of the overall provider base at Collective2. I had a hard time entering orders and an even harder time figuring out how to close an open order once one was executed.
FXTraderLink ; I just finished running some tests on their platform and it looks good. I haven't encountered any of the issues I saw with Zulutrader and unlike Collective2 the interface is very easy to operate. I expect to begin sending signals via this web site as early as tomorrow. Links will be posted once I begin to actually send real trades using FXTraderLink.com.
Oanda FXManager ; Tests are still in progress, though I do like what I have seen so far. Although the setup is more like a pooled managed account rather than an automated signal service the way it is put together it allows us to take on smaller deposit sizes than a normal managed account so in that respect I consider it an alternative to our MA Program as well. Updates will be posted once the tests are complete in a couple weeks.
There she goes....
LONG GJ @ 210.40
SL 208.40
TP 212.40
CLOSED @ 210.55 SIGNAL SENT VIA SKYPE
Market looks to be turning down again and we will look for shorts in Asia.
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
New TP and London Outlook
I have adjusted the TP on our 2 GJ shorts to 208.70, the low from earlier today, and I am looking for long opportunities in London. Even with the world wide equity weakness, commodities soaring, and a semi weak dollar it seems the Yen is having some problems of it's own thus we have been stuck in a range the past 36 hours. Seeing as we couldn't break through the 208.50 level I see a possible retest of the lows then a push towards new highs during London.
Monday, June 9, 2008
Ben's Wrath
Ben's comments sent GJ up over 100 pips to just over 210.80 a fairly strong daily resistance.
I am looking to short the beast at market, 2 positions, with our stop at 211.60 above the daily R1.
TP 208.00
When Mr. Ben is Speaking Cross Your Fingers
We have Mr. Bernanke on tap at 8:15 PM EDT, in roughly 3 hours and 45 minutes. I am short biased on the GJ, but I will wait until his speech gets under way to try and pinpoint the best possible entry.
We took a pretty big hit on our GJ positions today, but I am looking to re-coop those losses this week. If we can see a decent retrace on the beast we may be in for a shot at 213 or higher by weeks end. Our managed accounts and our Zulutrade accounts took a hit as well however since we do trade other pairs on these accounts the damage is not as bad.
Well folks this is forex, there are ups and there are downs, the important thing is that you don't let your emotions push you into bad trades, trying to get some "revenge" on the market.
Green pips are coming, stay tuned.
GJ Super Fakeout
After falling sharply on opening GJ "popped" upward during late London breaking through the previous 209 support.
Our shorts were stopped out with vigor putting us pretty deep into the red on our GJ Trade Tracker. It is very early in the month and we will get back into the black before the 30th.
More pips, more GREEN pips to come, stay tuned....
Friday, June 6, 2008
Got Oil?
The bulls and the bears where out in force today. If you happen to be an equity bear or a commodity bull you are a happy beast, if not, well TGIF.
After the Labor Department came out with the largest 1 month increase in unemployment in 21 years throwing the equity markets into a tailspin we saw spot crude prices shoot up over $9.00 to new record highs.
Less Jobs + High Energy Prices + Sub prime Ridiculousness + Inflation = Recession?
I am not a government employee, nor do I run an investment bank, so I am going to go ahead and say it....The US is in a recession. Period. You can manipulate the whys all you want the fact is that the US economy is in pain and as of yet no one has been able to find a crutch big enough to support it.
Our GJ shorts are still active and we will be holding them over the weekend. The jobs numbers were good for our shorts but the rising oil prices are weakening the yen and have kept us in a tight price channel all day. If we can close near or below 207 today we should see an accelerated fall come Monday in Asia.
NFP....I'm scared
As mentioned in a previous post normally I (we, FX Hoy collectively) NEVER trade on the first Friday of every month due to the NFP data release. This is by far the biggest regularly scheduled market mover in the monthly news calender.
That being said we have 2 open positions right now on the GJ, both of which are under water going into the news release. You will not see this happen very often however after analyzing previous NFP and Unemployment Number releases we see that in the last 6 months when we saw POSITIVE Unemployment Change data on the Thursday before "NFP Day" the NFP and Unemployment Percentage (one or both) were NEGATIVE. Not to mention Oil has shot up by $3.00 in early market trading which means commodity traders are looking for a weak dollar. Based on this I decided to leave the positions open with their current SL and TP in place. Another positive note is that we have only had 2 or 3 bullish Friday's on the DOW in the last several months.
UPDATE
NFP came through BELOW the expected number (Positive for the USD) however the Unemployment Percentage came in at -5.5% which is VERY BAD and quite bearish on the US economy.
Right now GJ is trading lower, slightly lower, but the release sent it down VERY sharply. I will hold the position.
Thursday, June 5, 2008
SL CHANGE
We have pushed our SL on both positions to 208.45 (SL from original short limit on June 3rd) ahead of the unemployment numbers. Once we see the price fall this will be moved lower. As we mentioned our GJ trades are now longer term trades. This particular trade may be open several days.
ADDING POSITION AT DAILY R1
Position added at 206.75 (Daily R1): Same TP and same SL as the original trade
TP 203.00
SL 207.50 (May change)
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
LIMIT SHORT GJ
GJ 4HR (Dark Blue line : GANN / 3 Light Blue lines : 5SMA Channel)
GJ 1HR (Dark Blue line : 12SMA / 3 Gold lines : 32SMA Channel)We are looking for a retest of the 4HR GANN with an entry just below it at 206.25. Our SL will be placed above the daily high at 207.50. Our TP is the same as our canceled limit short from yesterday, 203.00, which is slightly above a quadruple bottom on the daily charts from 2 weeks ago.
ENTRY: 206.25
TP: 203.00
SL: 207.50
Any changes will be posted here and alerted via Skype
LIMIT SHORT FROM YESTERDAY
Our official entry missed by 8 pips on our limit short from yesterday. Shorts are still in play and if you wish to take a position your new SL can be placed around 206.50. This is not an official call however and will not be tracked on this blog.
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
LIMIT SHORT GJ
This trade is based on PURE PRICE ACTION alone. We saw a fall from Friday's rejected high near 209 down to a 204.00 area low and we just completed a 61.8 fib re-tracement of that move.
We are looking to go short at 207 with an SL above Monday's high @ approx. 208.45 and a TP @ 203 just above the daily quadruple bottom @ approx. 202.65.
Monday, June 2, 2008
GJ SIGNALS AND CHARTS
Starting this week we will begin to post longer term (1 to 4 days) GJ trades with variable entry and exit points so that if you don't see the trades right away you can still enter them at different levels. We will also post charts to support our trades in an effort to help novice traders understand basic charting elements.
There may not be a trade this week due to NFP on Friday, however if we do see anything prior to London session on Thursday we will post it here.
GUINEA PIGS NEEDED
A client of ours suggested we look into the FXManager Platform at Oanda as an alternative to Zulutrade. What we have seen so far looks good. We are going to demo test the platform throughout the month of June and we need some "clients" to sign up and allocate some "demo money" to us in order to get started.
If you are in a helping mood and have a hole burning in your demo pockets please click here to sign up, and a BIG thanks in advance to you for doing so.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
